Well I am finally back home and the damage done by the flooding here is quite something.  It is the worst in 80 years and appears to have been exacerbated by the dams being released as they were over full. Nadi is simply a mess, it will be quite a job to get the shops open again and replace the stock.  The food markets basically have none, (food that is),  as all the root crops etc. were devastated.

I have long believed Fiji has a curse over it and this certainly appears to be increasingly true as they slide into trauma after drama over the last 20 years.

What never changes is their incredible spirit and love of life but to see so much damage knowing they can’t fix it quickly is harrowing to say the least.  They were without water for over a week and power is still spasmodic. Imagine that happening in NZ, it would have been investigations, criminal behaviour etc.  Here it is “life”

Stay Inspired and BE THANKFUL today!!  ~ Dean

Power of water

Power of water is a post from: Dean Letfus

what this weekend is really all about!

Don’t forget…… is a post from: Dean Letfus

I have been a long time fan of Rodney Dickens.  He is the  only economic forecaster who seems to get it right most of the time.  His report today @ http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/MangawhaiApr12.pdf is a fascinating read and shows the long term issues we are still in.  As a kiwi I love coastal property and was always waiting for it to come back to earth.

It sounds like it still has a ways to go in lots of areas still. Which makes the whole property thing quite weird right now doesn’t it. We have many areas of Auckland doing sort of quite well, a couple of areas going off big time and other suburbs dead as a dodo.  And nationally it is even weirder.

One of my agents told me this week he had investors fighting at auction over stock and another is ringing people out of the phone book to try and get them to list as he has buyers but no houses.  And he is in what I would term a true scungy investor market. If you are risk tolerant there is even room for some trading right now, not withstanding the legal issues around it, however you would want to be quick on your feet and happy to hold if you couldn’t sell.

The banks relaxing more and more is an interesting upside allowing some investors back into the buy and hold space. I guess overall things are moving predictably, Auckland is the place to be investing, Christchurch if you are willing to put the work in to watch the demographic rebuild and keep the rest of the country on mild alert

Anyway back to Rodney, if you appreciate good quality information and accurate forecasting on the property market subscribe or at least sign up for his free reports!!

Stay Inspired and Stay Safe ~ Dean Letfus

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Knowledge is Power is a post from: Dean Letfus

Apologies for being blogless lately but frankly I am so sick of being sick and the after effects of morphine have just made writing very hard.  I am trying to get back to “normal” but now have another round of unpleasant procedures to endure.  Who would have thought ones gall bladder could cause so much trouble even after it’s gone! So I will try and keep you informed of my life and times and make some intelligent comment regarding property but please bear with me  as they try to figure out how to get the stones out

Who, what, where and why! is a post from: Dean Letfus

Explaining the Phoenix Strategy and How to research any US property from your own computer in any country:

Enjoy:

Click here to view the embedded video.

How to Research any USA Property Webinar is a post from: Dean Letfus

Interesting to see John Key predicting a boom today HERE and Bill English disagreeing with him.  I have become immune to this commentary and prefer the “let’s wait and see what happens next” method as everybody is guessing.  One of the interesting things about this though is whether the Prime Minister making that statement could actually influence the market.  He has more credibility than anybody else including the Reserve Bank governor so maybe this could actually shift sentiment in the sector and become self fulfilling prophecy.

I guess it is quite likely that Auckland and Christchurch will have a bubble through rebuilding and internal migration but all the coal face evidence remains pretty “normal to depressed” in most parts.  We recently saw 2 homes sell in our own street quite quickly but at what sort of prices?  In both cases there was pressure to sell so they might become statistics of a market doing OK and increasing sales but I am simply not convinced that this means a recovery is occurring.

The old school strategy of buying expensive homes in nice areas will certainly see a resurgence in this market and the “I told you so’s” will be thick and fast however most investors will never be able to buy those sorts of properties.  So for 99% of people who want to buy pure “investment” stock there is a long wait still before we see our markets genuinely recover I believe.

I see the same thing in the USA right now.  The bottom end of the market location wise is staying there. In fact some areas are getting worse and fast.  The only difference in the USA is one can buy nice homes in great areas for only a teeny bit more than a really bad area so there the bettter home strategy is sound.  (Speaking of which join me this Thursday for our next USA webinar HERE)

But in good old NZ I think we are going to be sitting tight for a long time yet, even with Uncle John talking things up

Stay Inspired and Stay Safe ~ Dean

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Uncle John? is a post from: Dean Letfus

When I was in hospital I had several occasions when I had to tell late night nurses what to do or to stop them doing something wrong.  Because I was on a fixed routine I knew when my IV had drugs in it and whether it needed flushing etc. and when I should be taking certain pills.

Now even though I was very sick most of my nurse interaction was pain relief and IV liquid food so the consequences of a minor problem were negligible.  But it made me wonder how many times similar mistakes might occur with real serious issues.

Given how hard nurses work and the unbelievably difficult people they have to deal with I am not saying they are the problem.

I guess what I am thinking is this:

Is it realistic to expect a service or system to be “flawless” when it is being operated by imperfect people??

Self Help is a post from: Dean Letfus

I was at Ohope this weekend and it looked like real estate signs were having a convention on the roadside.  Given our love affair with property and the beach it was a real “sign of the times” to see house after beachfront house with a for sale sign up.

And something I hadn’t seen before was many of the signs had the asking price emblazoned across them.

I wonder how long it will take for coastal markets to come back, especially in areas like Ohope.  Middle of nowhere and on the way to kind of nowhere.  Stunning location and beach but will people ever want to pay a million dollars to live/holiday again?

I guess the answer to that is yes of course they will, we are after all kiwis with short memories and a serious sand addiction.

But the last 4 years may mean it’s a long road before we see these markets get anywhere near their 2006/7 heights.

There is always an upside of course.  If you’ve been waiting to buy a house cheap at the beach, now is THE time!

Stay Inspired and Stay Safe ~ Dean

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Coast for sale is a post from: Dean Letfus

Thought for today:

Never make permanent decisions based on temporary emotions.  We can;t control our emotions, they just happen to us don;t they.  And most of the time we are being influenced by them because that is part of being a thinking feeling being.

Yet we often make decisions we later regret because those decisions are permanent and not what we would have done if we were less angry/sad/happy.

Think about it for a minute, from unwanted pregnancies to destroyed marriages and financial ruin.  Permanent decisions made under the influence of a temporary emotion.

To stop this damage I am learning how to make temporary decisions so that I can check my emotions out.  In stead of !$^&$^%#&$^ and ^%$#*!%&#)* to you too I now say:

“Let’s discuss this later on when I can think more clearly about it”.

Recognising our emotional barometer is a great place to start.  None of us are going to make rational decisions in the heat of an emotional meltdown so once we establish that as a fact in our lives we can learn to say to ourselves I must not make any decisions right now until I am calmed down, sober, whatever it may be.

This has been quite a revelation to me today, not sure why.
I guess as I get older I understand the word permanent a bit better

~ Dean Letfus ~

A Championship Team will always beat a team of champions.

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Permanent decisions is a post from: Dean Letfus

Interesting times here in New Zealand.  We can see the beginnings of a bubble in Auckland and Christchurch as the Auckland rental market is under supplied, caused in part by so many Mainlanders joining the JAFA brigade.

And in Christchurch the beginning of the rebuild plus all the vultures and speculators looking for how to profit from the rebuild are fueling extraordinary interest there.

Of course this is in stark contrast to the ever deepening recessionary pressures both here and globally which begs the question:

What exactly will happen if one market is so called booming while the country is going backwards.  Is it possible for these 2 cities to be leaping ahead property wise defying the rest of the nation?

I guess the simple answer is yes it can happen as we are already seeing it happen in suburbs like Grey Lynn where houses are fetching mad money and competition is fierce at auctions.

But as investors what should we do?

Let’s take a pessimistic view that the country/world is going to be a mess for another 5 to 10 years.  If we have a bubble in Auckland and prices increase we can potentially profit by trading in a rising market.  That is childs play.  But the enormous risk is that the bubble bursts driven by banks not lending to the levels properties are selling for in Auckland or an ever worsening economic outlook causing lending to tighten again.

Most active investors seem to be doing one of the following two:

Running around in Manurewa and Otara and other very low socio economic areas buying and renoing or buying and holding.
I think this will ultimately be a disaster for most of them. We sold out of South Auckland as soon as we could and would never go back there. Maintenance, rental issues and most importantly sliding values make it a very bad idea.  (NOTE: I do not include Papakura in South Auckland, that market has consistently performed amazingly well.)

OR they are basically doing nothing.  I think this is quite a good strategy right now.  Sit out things in NZ or look offshore is not a bad idea.  I talk to agents daily and professional finders around the country and the overall outlook is somewhere between muted and terrible so we can’t afford to get bullish yet.

Keep your powder dry!!  Don’t be rushing in in New Zealand, there is much uncertainty ahead!

Dean

PS: Our next training webinar is going to be “HOW to research a property/area in the USA”.  Book HERE

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Hubble, bubble, toil and trouble is a post from: Dean Letfus